Posted by on April 20, 2017 3:36 pm
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Categories: CAC 40 Crédit Agricole Economy Emmanuel Macron European Central Bank European Commission European Union france François Fillon French people Marine Le Pen New Normal Nicolas Sarkozy Politics of France recovery Volatility

Nothing says existential fear for the EU like buying the f**king French dip on the heels of an overnight poll that simply confirmed expectations that the worst case scenario ‘Le Pen – Melenchon’ second round was still a significant outlier. French stocks soared 1.7% – the most in 6 weeks – bouncing off the 50-day moving average.

We suspect given the massive hedge positions being laid out that this kind of volatility will be the new normal for the next week or so… 

Notice CAC bounced perfectly off the 50DMA

It was a broad-based rally, with banking stocks among top gainers: BNP Paribas +4.2%, Societe Generale +3.8%, Credit Agricole +3%.

CAC 40 is “taking centre stage and moving higher on the belief that Emmanuel Macron will make it to the final vote this weekend,” Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets, wrote in a note.

Following are first-round voting intention estimates in Harris Interactive-France Televisions poll for the French presidential election. Changes from Apr. 13 are in brackets.

  • Emmanuel Macron 25% (+1 point)
  • Marine Le Pen 22% (unchanged)
  • Francois Fillon 19% (-1 point)

And overall, Le Pen’s odds of final victory have fallen notably (below Fillon) according to Oddschecker.

Still, we all know what polls are worth.

Meanwhile, Europeans really don’t care…  

The European Commission’s consumer-confidence index for the euro area jumped the most in five months in April. The advance put the index at its highest since March 2015, matching the strongest reading since before the financial crisis. The latest figures were far better than economists had anticipated and mark another step in the region’s economic recovery for European Central Bank policy makers to consider at their meeting next week.

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