Ethereum (ETH/USD) Breaking Downchannel Resistance Ahead of Today's Fork
Ethereum (ETH/USD) is breaking downchannel resistance (on the daily chart) going into today’s highly anticipated August 1st Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fork. On its own, the breakout is bullish, however caution is advised given the volatility expected today around the BTC/USD fork, and the distance between the current ETH/USD price and an uptrend support (on the daily chart). Last July’s ETH/USD pullback found support at the 61.8% Fib retrace of the rally (from the beginning of the year), but interestingly never tested its major uptrend support line. Nevertheless, with BTC/USD testing what appears to be bull flag resistance (on its weekly/daily chart), a breakout above its bull flag would reinforce ETH/USD’s rally today above its downchannel resistance. The weekly MACD blue line is still downsloping but significantly, the same MACD’s less sensitive (to recent price action) red line continues sloping slighty up, suggesting ETH/USD’s longer term trend remains up. The daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, as are the weekly RSI and Stochastics. Nevertheless, with uncertainty remaining over the fork, volatility can be expected to spike in the next 24hrs.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is bumping up against a slightly downsloping channel resistance line (on the weekly and daily chart) going into today’s highly anticipated August 1st fork. This same downchannel is arguably a bull flag, with BTC/USD bulls likely making an attempt today to break above flag resistance. The weekly MACD appeared several weeks ago to be making a negative crossover, but as sometimes occurs, produced a false signal with the MACD line turning higher again after seemingly poised to fall lower. The relative strength of BTC/USD over Ethereum (ETH/USD) continues, with bullish confirmation coming from ETH/USD also rallying today going into the fork. Nevertheless, with uncertainty remaining over the fork, volatility can be expected to spike in the next 24hrs. A short-term bearish (albeit less likely) outcome today would be BTC/USD getting rejected at its downchannel resistance, and forming a lower high (versus its June high).
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