Posted by on September 19, 2017 8:15 am
Tags: , , , , , ,
Categories: Bond Business Central Banks China Economy European Central Bank recovery US Federal Reserve

Day-in, day-out, asset-gatherers and commision-rakers remind hapless investors that all is well in stock markets because “there is a coordinated global economic recovery” going on… “that hasn’t happened for years.” As you might imagine… that is not exactly true when one looks at the hard data.

As global growth expectations slipped throughout 2015 and into Q1 2016, so global stocks (and bond yields) also declined.

However, since then stocks have gone only higher as global growth expectations have merely got back to even – not exactly the exciting global recovery that is so often pitched (especially as China’s credit impulse begins to strike).

So – to summarize – global stocks have risen almost 30% from Q1 2016 lows and both 2017 and 2018 GDP growth expectations are unchanged.

What changed? Simple… G3 Central Banks printed over $3 trillion to save the world again.

So what happens next when The Fed (and/or The ECB) begin to normalize? “paint drying”, we suspect will not describe it.

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