Posted by on May 10, 2017 11:05 pm
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Categories: Barack Obama presidential campaign Barack Obama presidential primary campaign bill clinton Census Bureau Democratic Party presidential primaries Democratic Party United States) Economy Florida Hillary Clinton Politics Rodham family Social Issues South Florida U.S. Census Bureau United States

Back in September 2016 we noted that unprecedented black voter turnout was a huge component of Obama’s victories in both 2008 and 2012.  After running in the low-to-mid 50% range for decades, black voter participation surged to over 60% for Obama in 2008 and 2012, the highest levels ever recorded.

As we noted then, the key question for Hillary in 2016 was whether she should expect the same level of unprecedented black voter turnout that Obama was able to garner in his two elections?  Now, courtesy of new 2016 voter data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau, we now know definitively that the answer to that question is a resounding ‘NO’.

After surging to 62% in 2012, an all-time record high, Black voter turnout once again dipped back to its historical range in 2016 with only 56% of Black voters turning up to support Hillary.  Just doing some simple math, there are roughly 245 million voting age people in the United States and just over 13% of them, or 32.5 million, are Black.  Therefore, a 6% decline in turnout equates to roughly 2 million votes, the overwhelming majority of which would have undoubtedly gone to Hillary.

Of course, despite the ‘Russian Hacking’ blame game still being played by Clinton, as we noted back in September she and her team were acutely aware of their small “enthusiasm” issue among African American voters.

 And, at least according to the president of the Democratic African-American Women Caucus, this math has the Clinton campaign in “full panic mode.”  Per Politico:

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is in panic mode. Full panic mode,” said Leslie Wimes, a South Florida-based president of the Democratic African-American Women Caucus.

“They have a big problem because they thought Obama and Michelle saying, ‘Hey, go vote for Hillary’ would do it. But it’s not enough,” Wimes said, explaining that too much of the black vote in Florida is anti-Trump, rather than pro-Clinton. “In the end, we don’t vote against somebody. We vote for somebody.”

Meanwhile, the lack of excitement is “worrying” Henry Crespo, president of the Miami-based Florida Democratic Black Caucus, who said that “No one is writing songs for Hillary. Obama had Hillary has nobody.”

That said, it wasn’t just Black voters who decided not to show up for Hillary…Female voters stayed home too…

…as did Obama’s trusty millennials…

Yeah, but Russia.

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