The Fed Has Not Been This Far “Behind The Curve” In 40 Years
The Fed has not been this far “behind the curve” since 1977.
According to the ‘rules-based’ Taylor Rule, which calculates an appropriate Fed Funds level based on inflation and employment relationships, The Fed is over 300bps “too easy” – the most sine the dreaded Arthur Burns fell behind the curve in 1977.
Which created rampant inflation that required the heavy and honest hand of Paul Volcker to remedy.
Notably the market tumbled almost 20% that year as The Fed suddenly started to catch up to reality (just as DoubleLine’s Gundlach has hinted will happen this time)
As Bloomberg’s Tom Keene discusses, “almost every time The Fed gets behind the curve it’s hard to pull the trigger… until it’s too late… and they always wait too long.”