Posted by on November 10, 2016 2:54 pm
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Categories: Bear Market Behavioral finance Bond Business capitalism Economy Finance Financial markets Investment Market trend money Short SPY US Federal Reserve

Everyone last night was acting on stupid emotion. People actually think markets make “sense” and are rational. Big mistake. The election outcome will have zero effect on my outlook long term. All of the problems are still there. Short term, what gold did last night was not remotely bullish. Currently I have no short term trading position in PMs. Only investment positions and that is becoming my main focus. I still believe in November of 2016 there will be an outstanding investing opportunity. As of last December gold re-entered a major, secular bull market. Ignore all of the BS. Use selling waves to buy. Gold is on a path to $1924, and then much higher. There will be two big resistance points on the way there – $1525 and $1800. But being bullish is NEVER a reason to be sloppy about entry points. Just be patient. But for people who have no miners and would like to own them, consider starting to nibble on quality miners into weakness.
The stock market is in a bear market, that has not changed. Distribution is continuing. On an investment basis, we are nowhere near a buy area for me. In the last few posts, I said to let the market rally play itself out. It’s now getting there – I’m starting to pay attention for the next really good shorting entry point. We’re not there yet. But it is the bond market which is the most frightening. 

The two huge massive problems remain – the debt and the derivatives – and there is ZERO a Pres.Trump can do to solve that. We are all in huge trouble. The short term bond market has already raised rates. The Fed will follow – and once again the Fed follows the market, not visa versa. And more rate rises in 2017. What is this world going to look like within 2 years with 6% mortgage rates. And 10% rates down the road. What a disaster. The big thing on my radar is the European banks. How is Trump going to solve it? He can’t. Helicopter money is coming next year. And you wonder why I’m so freaked out about this world.

I remain extremely bullish on the US$. I hear all of the rational reasons why the $ is going to go down. But they’re wrong. The $ is very bullish intermediate term. Short term, we’re once again at resistance. And for those who think I’m nuts to be longer term bullish on the $ and gold at the same time – just wait until the European banks blow up.

And, when I write about my extreme bullishness on agriculture, it’s not a popular subject. You’re making a mistake ignoring agriculture. I am not currently adding on to my long position, but I will add more into weakness.

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