Posted by on November 10, 2016 1:20 am
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
Categories: brexit Economy europe European Union Florida Michigan More United Opinion poll Politics Psychometrics Public opinion Survey methodology United Kingdom United Kingdom European Union membership referendum United States presidential election

The day before the 2016 US Presidential Election, most pollsters and statistical models had pegged Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning at greater than 90%.

However, as VisualCapitalst’s Jeff Desjardin noted yesterday, the consensus view is not to be trusted in a post-Brexit world.

Here’s what went wrong:

We looked at the predictions made by 12 major newspapers and pollsters the day before the election, to see where they went wrong.

For Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire – not a single source gave an edge to Republicans.

For Florida and North Carolina, the pollsters were slightly less reckless. The Associated Press correctly had the Sunshine State as “leaning red”, while the Huffington Post saw North Carolina ultimately voting Trump.

After this and the Brexit polling disaster, the media is sure to be much more cautious with their models going into the next big political event.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *