Gartman: “The Time Has Come To Be Short Of Oil Once Again”
When we pointed out yesterday that “world-renowned commodity guru” Dennis Gartman remained bearish of oil, we quoted him as saying that “it has been our intention all along to await the opportunity to sell crude oil short on protracted rally and we are getting that rally as we write. We can be patient a while longer.” His patience lasted less than 24 hours, because one day later – as oil is on the cusp of extending its bullish run for a near record 9th consecutive day – Gartman this morning that “the time then has come to be short of crude oil once again.”
The section of note:
CRUDE OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE and have now risen for 8 or 9 days in a row, depending upon when one has marked the close. Going by the CME’s official closes, yesterday was the 8th day in row higher and the “bounce” from the lows made two weeks ago amidst what was then panic liquidation has now taken the market to an almost equally over-bought, hyper-extended level to the upside.
We have maintained that the “bounce” would take crude back to The Box marking the 50-62% retracement in nearby WTI crude to somewhere between $47.00-$48.15 and for all intents that was satisfied yesterday when the high of $47.07. Note then the chart of nearby August WTI and note The Box.
The time then has come to be short of crude oil once again, and we are certain that we shall be at least as equally scoffed at for selling crude today as we were two weeks ago for urging everyone, everywhere not to be short. This recent increase has, of course, re-ignited the interest of drillers to drill and the contango is still wide enough to encourage drilling and hedging as the one year forward is very nearly $50/barrel.
It is probably just a coincidence that earlier this morning WTI was in the red and has since crept up back into positive territory.