Brien Lundin: If They Don't Want You To Own It, You Probably Should
Posted by Tyler Durden on August 16, 2017 2:15 am
Tags: Alan Greenspan, Bond, Business, Central Banks, Economic bubble, Economy, Equity Markets, FEDERAL RESERVE, Finance, Financial markets, Market liquidity, MONEY, New Orleans, Precious Metals, Real Interest Rates, S&P 500, Security, US Federal Reserve
Categories: Alan Greenspan Bond Business Central Banks Economic bubble Economy Equity Markets federal reserve Finance Financial markets Market liquidity money New Orleans Precious Metals Real Interest Rates S&P 500 Security US Federal Reserve
We’re living through the most extraordinary period of monetary manipulation in all of human history. It’s as widespread as it is delusional.
One of the most perplexing mysteries to us is that right as the Federal Reserve embarked on QE3 — which was a huge, enormous, $85 billion a month experiment — commodities began a multiyear decline within two weeks of that announcement. Concurrently, the world’s central banks plunged the world into steeply negative real interest rates, a condition that has almost always resulted in booming commodity prices — but not this time. Today, the ratio between commodity prices and equities is at one of, if not the most, extreme points in history.
Gold Newsletter was started in 1971 by my mentor in the business, Jim Blanchard. That’s the same year that the United States had closed the gold window, closed the convertibility of dollars into gold by other nations. Jim realized that now the US could print money with full abandon, it could print as much money and create as much debt as it wanted.
And at that time still, and until we managed to get gold legalized in 1974, you couldn’t own gold legally, except in the form of jewelry or rare coins. It was up there with plutonium and heroin as substances you weren’t allowed to own.
So it should be little surprise that, today, we’re seeing a synchronous rise in equity markets across the globe. It corresponds almost exactly with the unprecedented rise in debt, in liquidity, in all of these developed nations. If you look for example at the rise in the Fed’s balance sheet since 2008 and the corresponding rise in the S&P 500, the correlation is 97%. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. That’s where all of this reflation, this monetary reflation went, into those markets — which is why you really need to up your allocation to the uncorrelated assets [such as the precious metals] that are at historic lows in relation to financial assets.
Every time in history, before we’ve had a great upset in the financial markets, people have said: This time is different. And every time, it’s proven not to be. You have to have a correction. You have to have things return to the mean and, usually, overshoot a bit.
Alan Greenspan just a couple of days ago made the point that we’re in a bond market bubble and that’s what’s eventually going to burst. The risk inherent in bonds is not being priced into the markets now. When that bond bubble bursts, it’s going to take equities down with it. And there’s still tremendous liquidity out there; massive amounts of money will start suddenly looking for a safe haven.
The gold market is miniscule. It’s so small relative to the funds that are in bonds, interest bearing securities, equities, that it won’t take much of an allocation at all to send gold to record levels. That’s going to happen at some point. We can get fuzzy on the actual timescale and the timing of when it’s going to happen. But the fact that it will happen is inevitable, these trends are absolutely irreversible at this point.
So…What’s so special about gold? If it’s what they tell us: that it’s a barbaric relic and it has no use in society, then why be so secretive about it? Why be so reluctant to have your citizens own it? That alone tells you all you really need to know.
If they don’t want you to know about it, if they don’t want you to own it, you probably should.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris’ interview with Brien Lundin (46m:01s).